Taylor Swift’s new concert film ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ scored a record-breaking opening weekend, grossing $92.8 million in North America and $123.5 million globally. However, it fell short of initial projections in the $100-$150 million range, leading many to analyze where the unique rollout may have stumbled.
Unlike a typical studio film release, ‘Eras Tour’ was distributed exclusively through a partnership between Swift and AMC Theatres. While this allowed Swift greater control, some argue a traditional studio distribution could have helped the film reach its full box office potential.
Unfair Advantage?
Some claim AMC had an ‘unfair advantage’ over independent theaters, who were apparently unaware of key decisions. AMC was able to immediately put tickets on sale and saw swift sales, while smaller chains scrambled to get prepared. This led to AMC commanding 41.5% of opening weekend ticket sales, much higher than its typical 22-25% market share.
A studio distribution would likely have ensured a more level playing field between theater chains, potentially generating greater overall ticket sales. As one studio executive stated, “They [AMC] positioned this movie as an exclusive, which is something you never want to do. As a distributor, they cost themselves sales overall.”
Confusion Over Sold Out Shows
A week before release, AMC announced global presales surpassed $100 million, which may have misleadingly signaled shows were sold out. However, ticket sales plateaued around the same time, indicating demand was front-loaded. As one exhibition source noted, “You’d expect a movie that sold that many tickets to angle upwards, but it was so front-loaded.” This led to emptier than expected theaters on opening weekend.
Nonrefundable Tickets Upset Fans
When Swift abruptly moved up the release by a day, some fans complained they couldn’t get refunds for their original tickets. The lack of flexibility upset fans who had booked for the intended Friday opening. While the Thursday screenings added $2.8 million, the change was seen as inconsiderate to ticket-holders. A studio likely wouldn’t have agreed to such an inflexible arrangement.
Messaging Discouraged Broader Audiences?
Swift and AMC encouraged boisterous reactions during screenings, raising concerns that older audiences were deterred. The audience skewed young (82% under 25) and female (79%). But Swift has a significant older and male fanbase who may have been put off by the rowdy environment. As one studio executive stated: “We could have done things marketing-wise to get more people.”
Expectations Set Too High?
Some claim AMC was overly ambitious projecting a $100 million domestic opening, versus more conservative tracking estimates around $75 million. Setting expectations too high risked Eras Tour being seen as underperforming, versus letting projections be exceeded. Studios are usually more cautious with projections to manage perceptions.
Minimal Walk-Up Sales
Unlike films seeking to attract casual moviegoers, Eras Tour relied entirely on existing fans buying advance tickets. There was virtually no walk-up business, contributing to the weaker than expected turnout. As one analyst noted, “that sense of discovery is missing in a concert film.”
Key Takeaways
While still record-breaking, Eras Tour left money on the table and important lessons for future concert film releases:
- A studio distributor could have ensured a more equitable rollout across theaters
- Messaging and marketing could have brought in a wider demographic beyond diehard fans
- Refundable tickets and managed expectations may have led to better word-of-mouth
- Concert films rely on pre-existing fans, limiting potential audience growth
Despite stumbles, Eras Tour demonstrated concert films can drive substantial box office numbers. However, tailored distribution and marketing strategies are needed to maximize their potential. Swift’s team took an bold, unconventional approach, but the challenges they faced provide invaluable insights for future concert film rollouts.
