Taylor Swift’s concert film Eras Tour is on track to easily hold the No. 1 spot at the box office in its second weekend, while director Martin Scorsese’s new drama Killers of the Flower Moon looks set for a strong $20 million+ debut.
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Projected 60-70% Drop for Eras Tour
Despite being off screens Monday through Thursday this week, Eras Tour is estimated to bring in $27-37 million domestically in its sophomore frame. That would represent a steep 60-70% decline from its record-shattering $92.3 million opening.
The front-loaded nature of female-skewing films indicates these big second weekend drops are common. Other concert films like Hannah Montana (2008) and Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (2011) also saw their grosses dive in the 60% range in week two.
Still, even with a 65% decline, Eras Tour would deliver the best second weekend ever for a concert movie with around $32 million.
Killers Eyeing Rare $20M+ Start for Adult Drama
Meanwhile, Martin Scorsese’s 160-minute western epic Killers of the Flower Moon is tracking to open between $20-25 million. That would be a massive debut for a lengthy adult drama lacking major star promotion due to the ongoing actors’ strike.
Usually more commercial films like Tarzan (which also starred Leonardo DiCaprio) have struggled when running over 2 and a half hours. But DiCaprio’s star power, combined with glowing reviews (96% on Rotten Tomatoes), has analysts bullish that moviegoers will turn out.
It would also mark a new high water mark for Apple TV+, who is releasing Flower Moon theatrically with Paramount before it eventually streams on their platform.
Demographic Differences Minimize Clash
While both films are vying for the top spots, their appeal to vastly different audiences should prevent major cannibalization.
Eras Tour remains heavily female-driven at 79% women, along with 82% under 25 years old. Meanwhile, Killers is forecast to pull primarily older men and women over 25.
Killers also secured all IMAX and premium large format screens, whereas Eras Tour purposely avoided enhanced formats. Each film should be able to maximize their respective demographics without too much direct overlap.
Key Takeaways:
- Eras Tour looking at 60-70% drop but still $27-37 million sophomore frame
- Would represent best second weekend ever for a concert movie
- Killers of the Flower Moon poised for strong $20M+ opening for adult drama
- Different demos should prevent too much clash between the films
- Eras Tour to stay No. 1, but both movies primed for big numbers
So while Swift will almost certainly top the charts again, the influx of older moviegoers for Scorsese’s Killers should drive a very strong opening for the western epic as well. Both films show the variety of content resonating with audiences in theaters now.
